It seems a rebound in home sales isn’t such a slam dunk after all.
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) recently revised its 2025 housing forecast to adjust for the uncertainty of tariffs and any economic turmoil that may come with it. Looking at the updated quarterly forecast, CREA is accounting for 50,000 less home sales in 2025 than originally forecast (totaling 482,673 residential properties—virtually unchanged from 2024) and the average price of a home to be $30,000 less than originally forecast (hitting an average of $687,898 in 2025). Of course, there are many factors at play. Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist, said the only other time it has been this difficult to provide forecast updates was the beginning of the COVID-19 lockdowns.
“It’s been a very big change, in a very small amount of time,” Cathcart said on the CREA Housing Market Report.
To put things into perspective, home sales in March hit a level Canada hasn’t seen since the 2008 financial crisis.
“Up until this point, declining home sales have mostly been about tariff uncertainty. Going forward, the Canadian housing space will also have to contend with the actual economic fallout,” Cathcart said in a CREA media release.
Ontario and British Columbia were hit hard with declining home sales, but for the most part, sales are down all over Canada. Since November 2024, national home sales are now down 20%.
Information from sources such as CREA and TD Economics is provided for reference only. Pro Funds Mortgages does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
